By Ashleigh Bush

There’s plenty of chatter in global markets right now about the U.S.–China trade war—and for good reason. The U.S. is staring down record harvests of corn, soybeans, and wheat, but its biggest customer, China, isn’t buying.

Soybean prices have fallen 40 per cent in the past three years, and with rising production costs and higher interest rates, the 500,000 U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant losses. Historically, China has purchased more soybeans than all other foreign buyers combined. With half of U.S. production exported, this represents a quarter of total demand.

The National Corn Growers Association reports corn prices are down more than 50 per cent from their 2022 high, while production costs have only dropped 3 per cent. The result: full silos and fewer ships heading overseas as trade tensions and shifting supply chains reshape the landscape.

So, what does this mean for us in Australia?

On the upside, when China slams the door on U.S. exports, it has to open windows elsewhere. Brazil and Argentina have captured much of the displaced soybean demand, but there’s still space for Australian grain to edge into new markets. Our reputation for clean, high-quality product gives us an advantage where buyers want more than just the lowest price.

But there’s a flip side. U.S. harvests shut out of China will be redirected to other customers, including in Asia. That creates more competition on our doorstep and puts downward pressure on global grain prices. Even if we hold market share, margins may tighten.

The bottom line? The U.S.–China trade fight may open some doors for Australian exports, but it also makes for a more crowded playing field. The smart move is to keep a close eye on global shifts and continue leaning into the “premium” story that sets Australian produce apart.